Starship is the Easy Part - Mars Society's Zubrin Charts the Real Challenges on our way to Mars

Guest: Dr. Robert Zubrin, Founder of the Mars Society and Author of "The New World on Mars"

In this expansive conversation, Dr. Robert Zubrin takes us beyond the technical challenges of reaching Mars to explore the complex realities of establishing permanent human settlements on the Red Planet. While the world watches Starship development, Zubrin reveals how energy production, food sustainability, radiation protection, and governance structures pose the real challenges for human survival on Mars. His insights challenge common misconceptions and propose innovative solutions for everything from terraforming to creating new societies, demonstrating how Mars settlement could reshape human civilization both on and off Earth.

Quotable Insights:

1. "Mars will be ruled by the Martians. Different groups of people will emigrate to Mars with very different ideals as to what the ideal society should be."
2. "We don't go to Mars to desert the Earth. We go to Mars to expand the capacity of the human race, to create new branches of human civilization."
3. "I believe that humans are not the enemies of life, humans are the vanguards of life."
4. "We have in our power to begin the world anew."

Cosmic Timeline (Timestamps):

• [00:00:00] Opening: Mars governance and future civilizations
• [00:02:23] Realistic timeline for human Mars missions within next decade
• [00:03:46] Energy challenges on Mars - nuclear vs. solar power
• [00:06:20] First expedition structure and duration
• [00:09:31] Economics of Mars transportation and Starship development
• [00:13:51] Transition from expeditions to permanent settlements
• [00:20:00] Mars Against Hunger Prize and food production innovations
• [00:30:34] Radiation protection strategies and reality check
• [00:34:23] Living arrangements: underground vs. surface habitats
• [00:40:56] Terraforming possibilities using fluorocarbon gases
• [00:42:42] Alternative terraforming methods using iron nanoparticles
• [00:49:23] Mars governance models and settlement structures
• [00:56:18] Immigration and settlement competition between colonies
• [01:05:06] Mars as human expansion rather than planetary backup
• [01:08:32] Personal motivations and future vision
• [01:09:57] Music selection: Beethoven's Third Symphony

Links to Explore:

• The Mars Society
• Mars Against Hunger Prize
• Dr. Zubrin's Book: The New World on Mars (Penguin UK Edition)
• Mars Direct Mission Plan

Spread the Cosmic Love!

Share this episode with anyone interested in exploration, sustainable technology, or the future of human civilization. This conversation goes beyond the typical space exploration narrative to explore how

You can find us on Spotify and Apple Podcast!

Please visit us at SpaceWatch.Global, subscribe to our newsletters. Follow us on LinkedIn and Twitter!

Transcript

SCP_119_Robert_Zubrin_Master

[00:00:00]
Robert Zubrin: Mars will be ruled by the Martians. People sometimes ask me, well, what kind of government is going to be on Mars? And I think there'll be many different kinds of governments on Mars. I think that different groups of people will emigrate to Mars with very different ideals as to what the ideal society what the ideal government should be.

And they'll give their ideas a spin. And those that prove to be unworkable, those colonies will either change their ideas or they will fade and die. 

Those that do the best will outgrow the rest. and they will become the model, not just for Mars, but I believe for Earth.

Because why would someone move to Mars? They'll move to Mars if it's got something to offer that's better than what they've got where they are. 

[00:00:46] Markus: Hello everyone. This is the Space Cafe Podcast. And nine markets. You know, what's um, fascinating about our current March towards Mars. Via the moon. 

Everyone is watching. Ilan star ship development. Like it's the final piece of a puzzle. But what if, what if this is just the beginning? And in fact, this massive rocket, like the world has not seen before is in fact The smallest of our challenges and, um, it's a daring. Assumption, but let's meet Dr. Robert The founder of the Mars society and the mastermind behind the Mars direct mission plan. So for decades, he showed NASA and the world how to get to Mars. Without breaking the bank And today's conversation goes beyond just getting to Mars it's a lot more about what happens after those first footprints, those first expeditions in the red dust. We're talking. Real challenges today, like nuclear reactors, energy production, food production, political frameworks, a new branch of human civilization. So my friends get ready for a reality check of a different kind about becoming a multi-planetary species. Welcome. Dr. 

Robert to Brin to the Space Cafe Podcast. 

[00:02:23] Markus: when do you realistically see the first human boots on mars? 

[00:02:28] Robert Zubrin: Well, from a technical point of view, we could have people on Mars within 10 years, there's no doubt about that. Uh, and, uh, yeah, sure, we could have people on Mars by 2032. It, you see, it does need to program. Uh, is that, okay, while Musk is developing a transportation system, you need more than a transportation system to do a human Mars mission.

You need all sorts of surface systems. Uh, including a nuclear power system and, uh, which would be something very difficult to develop in the private or solely in the private sector, uh, because it involves controlled materials and there's a variety of other systems which in principle can be developed in the private sector but, uh, there's a deterrent to because Unlike a launch system, which has commercial, um, uh, applications, Mars surface systems don't that, at least not at this point.

And, uh, so we really need a public private partnership here. And, um, and, uh, at this point, uh, exactly how that can be arranged is unclear. But from a could be there in 10 years. We could be there in eight years.

[00:03:46] Markus: Why wouldn't you see Elon also come up with, I don't know, a fusion reactor or a fission reactor or whatnot on Mars to push the boundaries, even in these sectors, perhaps. I don't know.

[00:03:59] Robert Zubrin: Well, uh, there's a couple of things. First of all, Musk's primary interest in alternative energy is solar energy, which is not Mars because of dust storms. Um, and also because the solar flux on Mars is only 40 percent that of earth, even on a clear day. Um, the, the issue, um, Now, it must be said that even though Musk personally has not had much of an interest in either fission or fusion systems, he actually has done a lot of good for them by the example set by SpaceX, has caused people to start investing in them.

Sting, for instance, in fusion power startups, uh, because they looked at the success of SpaceX investors and said, Hey, maybe the problem with fusion research is the same problem as with reusable launch vehicles, not technical, it's institutional. We need to have an entrepreneurial approach. And so you do have.

Uh, Fusion Startups being funded by various investors, uh, some have gotten up to 800 million dollars, uh, funds actually larger than the government program, and they're operating on much faster timelines. So it is possible that as an indirect effect of the success of SpaceX, we will see Fusion, well, if not commercial Fusion power, Fusion ignition this decade.

Um, but A, from a practical point of view, if we're going to have a near term human Mars mission, we need a source. It's going to be fission. And you see, the thing is, is a space nuclear reactor, if you want to keep it highly enriched uranium. Um, not just the kind of stuff used in commercial reactors on Earth, which is typically about 3 percent enriched.

You want something more like 90 percent enriched. And that stuff is very tightly also bomb grade material. Um, and um, there are some ways around that. I mean, you could, for instance, contaminate it with, uh, Plutonium 240, which would make it, uh, not useful for bombs, but still quite useful in a reactor, but that would be, once again, you're you're talking about stuff that, that And handling materials that is, is subject to rather tight controls.

[00:06:20] Markus: So I guess the first expedition, will most likely be a bunch of astronauts staying there for, I don't know, a couple of weeks or months in a,

in a very confined space. 

[00:06:33] Robert Zubrin: if the mission is done correctly, the flight plan should be six months to Mars, year and a half on the surface, six months back. You don't the majority of your Mars mission in space and only a small fraction on Mars. You wouldn't plan your vacation to Hawaii by sending ten days at airports and six hours at the 

[00:06:50] Markus: Yeah, of course. 

 How many expeditions do you see before we, to Mars to stay on Mars?

[00:06:59] Robert Zubrin: Okay, well, here's the that, um, uh, I think if it was left entirely to governments, it might be a very large number of expeditions before anyone thought of establishing base on Mars, maybe five or ten. The, um, here's the thing, you see, uh, if Starship is successful, and I believe it will be, I mean, they've been working their way through the various problems each time they fly, it fails, but it fails further.

Through the flight envelope. And so I think we're looking at, um, a fully successful Starship flight to orbit. Um, well, possibly even this year, but if, not first half of next year. Um, so this is going to happen and therefore what is going to happen is it's going to be copied. Okay. The will become a generic thing.

Not There'll be several years in which SpaceX will have the only such thing, decade or so. There's going to be Chinese knock offs of Starships, you can bet on it. There's already five companies in China right now that have investor funding that are working on knock offs of the Falcon 9.

And, which of course has been a great success, and, and therefore it's being copied. And within the United States, I mean, uh, Blue Origin, um, Uh, the, the, um, the Glenn is basically a, uh, an enlarged repeat of the Falcon 9 and so is the Rocket Lab Neutron. Um, and so, now reusable, uh, space launch, excuse me, partially reusable space launch systems have been demonstrated to be successful, there are now going to be a variety And similarly, There will be with the starship type as well. And so here's the thing. Um, okay. Musk told me that, uh, he could build starships, that is the upper stage, the part that in principle would go to Mars, for 10 million each. Which means that either he or one of the copycats would probably it for 20 million each.

And you have to understand that the advent of reusable space, uh, space launch vehicles means that there's going to be something else. New in the world, which space launch vehicles that that has not up till now there

[00:09:31] Markus: used cars. 

[00:09:33] Robert Zubrin: Yes, exactly. You can't buy a used Saturn five. It does not exist.

You can't buy used Atlas. Okay, you can't. You know, so you can't buy a used Proton, uh, if they're used, they're gone, okay, but cars, of course, because they exist, people who could not remotely afford to buy a new car, own cars, uh, because you can buy a used car for 10 percent the cost of a new car, and, um, so, is going to be true of launch vehicles.

And now once this thing has been proven by a series of expeditions, and once there's a lot of, uh, used, uh, uh, lot heavy lift launch vehicles on the market, um, and a certain point they will go on the market, what else would you do with it once you're done with it? Um, the, the, the, the people who actually want of setting up a, um, Settlement on Mars, we'll one.

And if, you know, if these things can be sold for 20 million new, it means they'll probably million used. And okay, here's Starship, which is being vaunted as something that could transport a hundred people to Mars. Well, a hundred people divided into 2 million dollars is 20, 000 a person.

[00:10:55] Markus: that's nothing.

[00:10:56] Robert Zubrin: Uh, well, it's not it's, uh, it's

not an obstacle for someone who, who wants to pull up stakes and move and do a new start on a new world.

[00:11:07] Markus: I think, um, if I remember correctly, please do correct me, the, the, the Concorde, um, 

airplane, um, on an intercontinental flight was in its business class pretty much along those, this price tag, 

[00:11:24] Robert Zubrin: It might very well have been. I did recently check, uh, a round trip first class air ticket from Los Angeles to Australia 20, 000 right now. people willing to pay that. Uh, now, those, of course, are, are, are luxury travelers. Um, settlers typically will not be luxury travelers, but, you should know that in the 1700s, um, the Equivalent fare to travel by ship from England to 

[00:11:57] Markus: Hmm. 

[00:11:57] Robert Zubrin: uh, in, in, in terms of, in comparison to incomes, was about 300, 000, uh, and the, uh, now 300, 000, uh, well, a middle class person could sell his farm and, and, and raise that kind of money.

Okay, once again, this is in equivalent to labor and so forth. Okay. income equivalent. Money. Uh, a working man would, um, sell his labor for seven years as an indentured servant.

[00:12:31] Markus: Well, or 

[00:12:32] Robert Zubrin: you take seven times, 000 today, that's 350, 000. Uh, that is the kind of money that people are willing to spend if they want to cash in their chips and move.

[00:12:46] Markus: if you're ready to go to Mars. I guess, like the settlers back in the 1700s, they were ready to go to that new home for good, so they would sell everything back at home. So, I think, I think the investment is pretty realistic for even the worker if they sell everything they own in order to set up shop in the new world.

if this comparison makes sense.

[00:13:15] Robert Zubrin: Yes, I mean look, it's basically, if, if you're rich enough to be a homeowner, and for of Americans are homeowners, okay, so we're not talking about the about the 50%, you could sell your house, and with the equity, you could buy your way to Mars.

[00:13:34] Markus: So let's um, let's go back to the, to the 

expedition transitioning 

into an 

actual settlement. How can, how quickly do you think, can we scale from those expeditions into settlements 

[00:13:51] Robert Zubrin: Okay, well, I do see governments moving that, in our, for instance, we have this as a public private partnership, establish a permanent Mars base, okay? Um, and a permanent Mars base would require, Unquestionably offer bonuses to people who, instead of staying over the minimum time of a year and a half, stay four years.

We'll give you a million dollars. Why not? Because it costs so much to transport them back and forth, okay? So now you have people who would be staying on Mars four years, six years, okay? And then forming Mars and having children on Mars. And so a base could turn itself. into a bit of a village that way and start to develop institutions, schools and so forth.

Um, certainly community theater. I mean, we even had that in World War II with, uh, people stationed in the Pacific and elsewhere, they'd create, uh, um, various, Uh, it's institutions to, to maintain some form of cultural life while they were abroad. Um, but the, the, the, but, uh, and that could conceivably grow a actual settlement, but I think that the real settlements, uh, will come from private groups who, once they see that this technology is available, and they want to have a place where they could go to be able to make their own world.

And that is the people who really do do it. I mean, if you instance, the most, um, Remarkable episodes of colonization, and by the word colonization I use in the sense of settlement, not invading else's country and taking it over, okay. But in the past 400 years, okay, I would list the Pilgrims going to North America, the Mormons going to Utah, Jews going to Palestine.

Um, where none of these things were motivated, uh, significantly by economic considerations. They were, uh, okay, they, they, they had an element of transcendence in them. That is, they had a religious motivation. Fundamentally, were people who wanted to go to create

their

own where they could live as

[00:16:20] Markus: A new start. 

[00:16:21] Robert Zubrin: A new start.

and go to a place where they, where the rules haven't been written yet, where they rules, where they can make a start. And in all three of these episodes, I the, the Pilgrims, Uh, had already fled England for Holland, and the problem they were having with, uh, Holland was that the Dutch were too nice.

were being assimilated, and they said, we gotta get out of here. Uh, the Mormons who went to Utah, they could have gone to California or Oregon, which more fertile places, wanted to have a place of their own. And the Jews, instead of going to Palestine, they, it would have been much easier to go to New York, and the, the, the, the, but once again, they wanted to create something of their own, and the, um, so, this will be a motivation, so you see, not everything that people do is practical in the, uh, Nominal sense of, uh, well, this is the best way to make money or the best way to have a life of security and comfort.

Uh, I mean, there are certainly people motivated by that, but there are other people who are not motivated by that. There are other people who want to accomplish something really remarkable with their therefore willing to take, uh, encounter discomfort, danger, whatever it in order to do that.

[00:17:46] Markus: I'm wondering if we, if we stay with that analogy. Um, if you want to see desperate, um, Um, on Mars who left Earth for various reasons because they wanted to look for something new because they were persecuted as I think this only works if you have private companies who are supporting something like this for profit because 

a governmental Mars mission, a national bought by a national space agency would not support something 

[00:18:29] Robert Zubrin: In general, not. Although, who knows? You can never count on such things. Um, I mean, the British on immigration to Palestine. But, the, the, Um, but yes, I, I'll concede the, the basic point that this will does require significant private space capacity. And that exactly what we're seeing right now.

And, and by the way, it doesn't have to be people who are being persecuted to the point of death. The pilgrims being persecuted to the point of death. the, the,

the, mean. Look, uh, I don't think that the well of social thought is exhausted by the current age. I don't think that, um, we've reached the ideal form of government.

I think there will always be people who have new ideas and who, in general, will therefore not be popular. Uh, and, uh, will want to have a place to go where they could give their ideas a try. Um, and, um, so, 

[00:19:37] Markus: but let's first try 

to make ourselves 

at home and make 

ourselves 

at home in a sustainable way on Mars. So in order to make Mars livable, what Technologies does it take to do so? What is necessary for us to make ourselves a ho at, ho a home out, out 

[00:20:00] Robert Zubrin: Okay. What is needed, okay, first and foremost, in any environment, are the technologies that allow you to take the materials there into resources. Okay, this is a very important point, uh, and not just for Mars, but for understanding the development of civilization on Earth. There's natural resources.

natural raw materials. It is technology, that is human creativity manifested in, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, practical forms, uh, that transforms materials into resources. Uh, the uranium not a resource until we invented nuclear power. Oil wasn't a resource until he invented oil drilling and refining and machines that would run on the product.

If you went to a meeting of the general staff of Napoleon Bonaparte and they were contemplating invading a country and someone was asked to list the natural resources of that country, they wouldn't have listed oil, okay? To say nothing of uranium or even aluminum, which wasn't even known to science until 1820, okay?

Because until you have electricity, you can't aluminum from aluminum oxide, okay? And then I mean, land wasn't even a resource until people invented agriculture. So, the, the, the, the, the, you know, what's land? It's just this thing you have to walk over. Uh, it has no intrinsic value. Uh, you know, any more than people right now consider the patches of the ocean of having value in themselves.

Um, the, the, the, the, now, so, you know, You turn materials into resources. Now, so there's a lot of physical transformations involved in that. They all require energy, and that's why I come back to the nuclear reactor, okay, as one key to this. But there are also other things. Now, obviously you have to be able to grow food.

now this

this is,

this is an issue. Uh, for a Mars expedition, it's not an issue. You can just bring your food. It's not a problem at all. Uh, for a Mars base, it's not much of an issue. You can feed a Mars base of 20 or 40 people with greenhouses. Um, but when you talk about a city, Say, 50, 000 people the size of Renaissance Florence.

Okay, little, putting metropolis, something else entirely. but just a respectable little city. Um, well, okay. Iowa farmland is the most productive agriculture practiced on earth today. And, uh, it grows a hectare of Iowa farmland, well farmed, will grow enough food to feed they eat is corn.

Now if they want to eat some meat, fruit, vegetables, 20 people. Okay, 20 people per hectare. if you've got 20, 000 people, it's a thousand hectares. If you have 50, 000 people, 500 hectares. That's a lot, okay, that's almost inconceivable to build greenhouses to do that. Or some people even talk about doing tunnels, and that's assuming that on Mars with half the solar flux, you'd have the same productivity as Iowa.

Now, the, the, um, And some people talk about building tunnels and doing this underground with artificial lighting and the power cost to that would be spectacular. So, that is why, um, I believe that some, uh, radically new ways of producing food will be needed. Okay, and you see the fundamental problem with, uh, food production on Earth, Okay.

It's all ultimately based on photosynthesis. And photosynthesis is not efficient at the level of, uh, uh, uh, chloroplast. The photosynthesis is 4% efficient. At the level of a cornfield, 0.2% efficient, and if you're feeding the corn to cows, 0.02% efficient. Okay? So to make protein from sunlight, it's 0.02% efficient Now. Okay, this is, this is not good. Um, as an engineer, I would say that a system that does that is, is not efficient. Uh, now, uh, chemical engineering, uh, systems are routinely, I mean, it depends on the process, but ballpark. 30 to 70 percent efficient. Okay, 50 percent efficient. Something like that. That's what you'd expect from a chemical engineering process.

And some are but we'll settle for 50 here. Um, so how produce proteins that kind of efficiency? Well, you things that are food for certain kind of microbes such as methane and methanol with efficiencies exceeding 80%. Um, and then the microbes can transport that into protein with about 50 percent efficiency.

you're down to, you know, like 40 percent efficient system producing protein. Um, that protein is not that palatable. I mean, it's, it's edible. but the, As a preference, you wouldn't regard it as something you'd really want, but you could feed it to fish and they could convert it to fish at 50 percent efficiency, and now you're talking about 20 percent efficiency going from

uh,

energy to fish, and so I think that something like this is going to need to be developed, so, and in terms of energy, Okay, uh, while the initial base will be powered by fission, uh, I think we will want to go to fusion, there's a lot of that, um, deuterium, which is the fuel for fusion reactors, is five times as common on Mars as it is on Earth.

The fission fuel to make it requires a, a, a very substantial industrial base in terms of uranium, uh, isotope enrichment, all this sort of stuff. Um, deuterium, you do have to enrich it, but it's vastly easier to enrich heavy hydrogen from light hydrogen. They differ by a factor of two in their atomic weight compared to, uh, isotopes of uranium, which differ by three percent, uh, or actually, uh, more like, uh, one and a half percent in weight.

so Uh, the going to want to have fusion power, and they're going to be driven to develop it for that reason. I mean, look, there are people putzing around with fusion power on Earth right now, but there's no societal urgency to it. We've got tons of fossil fuels, we have waterfalls, we have the industrial base to do fission.

Okay, but to want this, and, um, so, you're talking about artificial food, you're talking about fusion power. Um, the, the, uh, The Martians are going to be driven to invent, and my parallel for this, and I discuss this a lot in my book, The New World on Mars, um, which is now out in both the United States and the UK, um, Penguin just published an edition in Britain, um, which for Europeans to get their hands on, take early America, First of all, they developed two new sailing rigs, even in the 1600s.

1600s. The Sloop and the Schooner were both developed in America, and they're both remarkable in that they hands to manage than the square rigs. But breakthrough is steamboats. Now, the British had invented steam engines, and they were using them to pump water out of coal mines. 

Yes, now A steam engine used to pump water out of coal mines does not have to be efficient at all because you have an infinite supply of coal right there.

And it's a stationary engine, have to be compact or anything. But you put a steam engine on a boat, it has to be compact and it has to run on the fuel the boat can carry, it has to be efficient. And so the Americans were driven When they developed the steamboat, which they did because the only real highways that early America had were the rivers, and sailboats don't really do that well on rivers, uh, you need steam, and steam the way, um, they're driven to high pressure steam engines.

That's how you can make them smaller and more efficient. And they did that, and that enabled not only steamboats, but then railroads, which are the transformative invention of the 19th century. So quite literally, the challenge of the frontier inspired the development of high pressure, high efficiency steam engines, which then enabled which is just.

Transforms the world completely. Um, and, uh, so, in the same way, the pressure of the frontier, um, and, and, well, two other elements are needed besides pressure. One is a technologically adept population, which you had relatively so in, uh, early America. In fact, uh, studies have been done of the immigrants to America in the 1700s, and oddly, Um, well, a substantial number of them were farmers, as you'd expect, because most of the people in England were farmers, next highest group, 50%, are artisans, carpenters, stonemasons, blacksmiths, this, And so this helps create the demographic that gives you this culture of gadgeteering in America.

And you take that kind of people, and you give them political freedom as well, creative freedom, and education, um, and of the frontier, they're going to do stuff. And I think that's what we're going to have on Mars. We're going to have a technologically adept population in a frontier environment, which they're going to be forced to innovate, and they will innovate.

[00:30:34] Markus: we got the transportation covered, we got the energy supply covered it's developed sufficiently, we got food source covered. How about radiation? How big of a problem is that on 

[00:30:50] Robert Zubrin: Okay, I'll answer I do want to complete one thing from our previous discussion, which is that this issue of food is so important that the Mars Society has started a contest, okay, the Mars Against Hunger Prize,

um,

in which we're going to be giving out prizes for people who can demonstrate the best solution to this problem.

And people can find all about this on the Mars Society website, marssociety.

[00:31:16] Markus: Fantastic. So how's, when is, are you already receiving propositions? How

[00:31:23] Robert Zubrin: The, uh, I forget the exact due date, but they're going to have to submit the reports in the spring. And then, uh, the top ten will be invited to come to the conference that we'll have next fall in Los Angeles to present live in front of a group of judges, the awards will be decided on then.

[00:31:45] Markus: And then one, the winners, what happens with the winning

[00:31:49] Robert Zubrin: Well, they're gonna get a cash prize, um, first prize is 10, 000 and eternal glory, second 5, 000 and eternal glory, uh, and, um, One of for entering the contest is this being Technology Institute, which is the institute that the Mars Society has set up in order to try to develop the technologies needed to settle Mars, um, and spin them off for use on Earth, that the Mars right to patent these processes.

And if we do, then they third interest in the patents. If we do not, they're free to patent it themselves. 

 And here's the thing in doing this. I mean, if we can solve this problem, I mean, what could be a better benefit for the people of the earth, the poorest of the earth, than a way of producing High value protein at, you know, a hundred times that it's currently being done.

You know, so, you know, people they say, oh, these space people, they don't care about the Earth's poor. They just want to go play with rockets, right? Okay. Well, we're going to show that this is just a This is just nonsense, that in fact, by taking on the challenge of space, we are going to create the solutions to the most important challenges of Earth.

In fact, in certain done that. I mean, where come from? It came from the space program. Uh, and if solar energy, uh, proves to be, uh, a real problem solver for, you know, curing global warming or whatever, uh, then people will have gotten that from space. And if we can find a way to produce food at the efficiency requires, people will have gotten the end of hunger on Earth from Mars.

[00:33:48] Markus: That's huge. So when, when is the, um, when is the contest finishing next year?

[00:33:56] Robert Zubrin: The contest will wind up in Los Angeles, which will be, uh, probably next September. It might be October, we're still arranging the dates. 

[00:34:06] Markus: Um, so Let's go back 

to, um, the radiation issue.

[00:34:12] Robert Zubrin: okay.

[00:34:14] Markus: So 

is radiation, how, how much of a problem is it? Do we have technologies in place to mitigate this issue or,

[00:34:23] Robert Zubrin: The radiation problem is overdrawn. The, um, radiation dose on the Martian surface, the dose rate, is about the same as that at the International Space Station. Uh, that is, contrary to popular belief, the Earth's magnetic field does not shield us from cosmic rays, it doesn't, it's too weak. Uh, cosmic ray, the people on the surface of the Earth are shielded by having the atmosphere above us, which is equivalent to having ten meters of water of its mass. On the space station, of course, you don't have that. But you do have the Earth below you, which shields out half the sky, as it were, half the directions that cosmic rays could come to you are blocked by the Earth if you're in low Earth orbit. And so the dose rate at the space station is half that in interplanetary space, and the dose rate on the surface of Mars is also half that, for the same reason, you have Mars under you.

Now,

That gets you to a dose rate, which, while it is regulatory standards, for, say, nuclear power plant workers, those standards are extremely conservative and have no relationship to

casualties. Uh, there there There have been no radiological casualties from all of human activity in space to date. There have been zero health effects, yes, but there have been no radiological health 

[00:35:55] Markus: interesting, 

[00:35:56] Robert Zubrin: astronauts or cosmonauts.

Now, the, the, uh, now if you do use what's called the linear no threshold methodology of evaluating radiation doses, and this is Uh, a methodology which is so to be simply fallacious, uh, that is the linear threshold methodology says that if you get 1 percent of a fatal dose, you percent chance of dying.

So that's like, well, if you drank, you know, A hundred glasses of night, you'd probably die. But would you have a 1 percent chance of dying if you drink one glass of wine? No. If you drink one glass of wine per night for a are you going to die? Um, the, the, it has no relationship to, but nevertheless, this is the methodology that is used.

And. If you were to adopt this methodology, there would be a fifth, excuse me, you get about 50 rems going round trip to Mars, actually in a year on Mars, you'd get about 25 rems, two years on Mars, you'd get about half of 1 percent a chance of dying of cancer, Bye. At some point later in your life that if you believe in linear no threshold so four years percent chance That you would at some point later in your life.

Um, the average smoker

um,

Increases their anyone non smoker has a 40 a 20 chance of dying of cancer. If you're a smoker, it's 40. Uh, So, it would take, uh, 80 of living on Mars to develop the same, um, risk. if you're living on the surface. What if you're mostly living underground? How much of your day do you actually spend outside?

Um, uh, most people it's perhaps 10%. That would be two and a half hours outside. That, that would be above average, I would say. Um, that someone spends outside. That's about it. Um, I mean, farmers and construction workers somewhat more, but, um, office workers rather less, um, and unfortunately children these days rather less, um, the, the, the, but, so, let, let's double that, make it 20%, okay, you know, spending five hours a day outside, that's definitely on the high side, um, well, if the Martians were to live in houses that underground with just dome roofs outside or a dome city that they can go into when they are, as it were, out of doors.

Uh, that means that for 80 percent of their time, they would be completely shielded, and therefore the doses would be reduced by a factor of 5, and it would take not 80 years, but 400 years to get the same radiation, uh, hazard dose as an average American smoker.

[00:39:08] Markus: We're usually imagining our extraterrestrial settlements as surface settlements. Um, where do you see us live on Mars, underground or above ground?

[00:39:24] Robert Zubrin: Well, w

I

see the basic city as being a surface city. Okay? Um, you wouldn't have, uh, domes the, you know, many kilometers in sometimes see in science fiction. You could have domes or things comparable to domes a hundred meters in diameter, and then you could interlock them, uh, and travel from one to the other.

Um, this has to do with the, the effect of pressure on structures, which the bigger the structure is. Um, but the, so, so you could have houses and everything, but your underground. See, uh, only part of the house would be above ground, the house within the dome, um, the, uh, and then you could go outside and walk around the city and, you know, enjoy the orchards and what have you, uh, but, but say it was an average of five hours a day out of doors, the radiation dose would be negligible, 

[00:40:28] Markus: Elon Musk has been sporting, um, a Nuke Mars t shirt, um, uh, in public events now and then. I think he refers to, um, forcing a greenhouse effect on Mars by nuclear detonations. 

Is this 

more than science fiction? Is this a realistic way to help us become Martians in the future? 

[00:40:56] Robert Zubrin: Otter. ai

it, it wouldn't work.

Um, the, the energy in nuclear impressive as it is, is, is not enough to vaporize the Mars solar, uh, southern, uh, ice cap, which is mostly CO2, um, and it would take thousands hydrogen bombs and, and it would cause a significant fallout problem, okay? And it still wouldn't work, uh, because Because the effect would be too temporary, the, the, uh, uh, dry ice would recondense.

Um, now what would work, actually though, is putting, creating an artificial greenhouse effect on Mars. Um, using things that are more effective than as greenhouse gases. And there are two, uh, ways to do that. The way that I have, um, Uh, proposed along with people like Chris McKay and others who've studied this for some time is a fluorocarbon gases, um, which are extremely powerful greenhouse gases and they, unlike chlorofluorocarbons, are immune to, um, Destruction by UV, and they don't damage ozone.

Uh, we use them as refrigerants right now on Earth, but if you produce them on Mars at a rate that we produce all of these gases on Earth and the chlorofluorocarbon gases, um, and, but didn't put them in refrigerators, put them, just released them into the atmosphere for the purpose of doing global warming By intent, uh, you could raise Mars's temperature centigrade inside of 50 years.

[00:42:42] Markus: Wow. do you source, how do you source those gases?

[00:42:47] Robert Zubrin: Well, the fluorine, well, carbon's everywhere on Mars. Fluorine, um, presumably you'd want to find fluorine salts. Um, Mars once had oceans, it had rivers, there should be salts, the fluorine salts, just as there is on Earth. Now, more recently, There's been another idea put forward which is extremely interesting.

This was just put forward in the past year by a team, an international team, um, the most prominent of it in terms of, uh, being public with it is a University of Chicago professor named Edward Kite. Um, And this idea, their idea is to create iron nanoparticles and basically iron dust and spread it into the atmosphere.

And interestingly, this also has very strong optical um, reflecting the ultraviolet back down onto the surface. Okay, so it's a greenhouse gas but made from iron. Now there's no question that iron is available everywhere on Mars. That's why the planet is red from rust. Um, and the, um, so this, this definitely takes away the question about where you're going to find the fluorine.

Um, you can definitely find the iron. Now, it takes energy. You've got to break up the iron oxide and to make iron particles, but it's not excessive. Uh, the amounts of energy are comparable to that in the fluorocarbon scheme. Um, Something like 5 gigawatts, which is about the same amount of that powers, um, Chicago, um, so, I mean, it's a lot more power than you have at a Mars base, but it's not like 70 times the power the human race currently consumes or something of this nature, um, the, the, the, um, so, you know, Um, so this is a very interesting idea, um, and uh, does open the way.

So now you greenhouse Mars, okay, so you warm Mars using fluorocarbons or iron particles, and uh, You raise it 10 centigrade. Now, if you did you would vaporize that polar cat and keep it vaporized. And furthermore, not just that, but there's much larger amounts of CO2 that is, uh, soaked into Mars soil globally, okay?

And cause that to outgas. And, uh, more effective than bombing the pole. And, um, And you could thicken Mars's atmosphere from its current thickness of about 1 percent Earth up to about perhaps 30 percent Earth. And that's the same pressure as you have, for instance, on Mount Everest. Now on Mount Everest, okay, people can walk around wearing oxygen need pressure suits. The air has thinned enrich its oxygen percentage, oxygen. At lower pressure, by having 100 percent oxygen in the mask, or you actually have more oxygen than you have right now if you're sitting at sea level, or I have that where I'm getting about, um, percent sea level oxygen in Colorado.

Uh, but, so, so, At that point, on this Mars, people could walk around outside without spacesuits. They would just need warm clothing and oxygen masks, just kind of like on Everest. 

[00:46:17] Markus: And just for a second, these gases and the ion particles, they would not escape into space, they would stay within the already existing thin atmosphere and 

enrich 

[00:46:32] Robert Zubrin: Yes, they would. Uh, they're heavier than CO2 in that space in Mars So, this had warmed the place up, but you would have an atmosphere which is overwhelmingly CO2. Now, you'd start to get water vapor as well, because with this temperature rise, the temperature at least in the more tropical regions of Mars would be above the freezing average, would be above the freezing point of water year round.

So you would get liquid water, um, the rivers on Mars would flow lakes would fill with water, you know, oceans would be reconstituted, uh, and you'd have rain, um, which would do a lot to destroy the peroxides, are in the Martian surface, because they break down on contact with water, um, and that would release small oxygen into Mars's atmosphere, um, but basically you'd have an atmosphere which plants could accept, but not humans, um, spread enough plants, okay.

Then by photosynthesis, they could increase the percentage of oxygen in that atmosphere to the point where it breathable, first by, uh, the simple animals, then insects, and then eventually, uh, humans, 

[00:47:49] Markus: Would plants grow? So if I If I threw a bunch of seeds into Martian soil under enough humidity, et cetera, would plants be able to grow?

[00:48:03] Robert Zubrin: Under those circumstances, yes. And especially since these plants You know, you'd have humans actively bioengineering them to ensure that adapted to this environment. And that to accelerate the process. We're talking being done perhaps a hundred years from now, and Presumably by this time, I mean biotechnology is going to the 21st century. We've learned how to read the genetic code.

We're learning how to write it. So, You know, I mentioned that chloroplasts are 4 percent efficient. Uh, there when they were less efficient, actually. Um, and they could be made more efficient. Uh, alternative biological, uh, items created that would be more efficient. and, um, so inconceivable that You know, people a hundred years from now will be able to engineer photosynthetic organisms that are considerably more efficient than those that we are currently presented with, would greatly accelerate the process.

[00:49:13] Markus: who writes the rules for Mars? Is this the Wild West all over again? Going back to governmentality.

[00:49:23] Robert Zubrin: Mars will be ruled by the Martians. Um, the, uh, I mean, I could point out the fact that the Outer Space Treaty, um, the governments of Earth have officially declared that they will not attempt to exert sovereignty on extraterrestrial objects. So the people who say that the Outer Space Treaty settlement of Mars have it exactly backwards.

The Outer Space Treaty guarantees that. That people who will settle Mars will be outside the jurisdiction of, uh, terrestrial governments. Um, although I would imagine that a Mars base set up by, uh, say the United States, uh, would be under U. S. jurisdiction, the planet itself is not. um, uh, so, Basically, I mean, you do You can't have anarchy. Uh, property titles only exist in the presence of governments. The reason why I own my house is I have a certificate that I can show to the police, so if some people try to move into my house, I can have the police throw them out. Um, the, the, the, the, you know, your ownership of anything is fundamentally based on the fact that there's a group of armed men who will honor your certificate that says it's yours and not anyone who wants to take it.

the, the, um, so we're going to need government on Mars, but that government I, I believe will be set up by the various colonies themselves. And people sometimes ask me, well, what kind of government is going to be on Mars? And I think there'll be many different kinds of governments on Mars. I think that different groups of people will emigrate to Mars with very different ideals as to what the ideal society what the ideal government should be.

And they'll give their ideas a spin. And those that prove to be unworkable, those colonies will either change their ideas or they will fade and die. 

[00:51:21] Markus: So there will be a bunch of, a bunch of experiments. Experimental settlements,

[00:51:26] Robert Zubrin: They might not regard themselves as experiments, but from the point of view of history, that's exactly what they are. Um, they're experiments in governance and, and, and social those that do the best will outgrow the rest. Uh, and they will become the model, not just for Mars, but I believe for Earth.

Because the great attractor that they're going to have. Okay, in other words, why would someone move to Mars? They'll move to Mars if it's got something to offer that's better than what they've got where they are.

[00:51:59] Markus: what if Musk has 

shown time and again, 

and, and for very recently 

with his X slash Twitter that he's willing to rewrite the rule books, um, on these platforms, speaking of course, um, of the freedom of speech and this freedom of speech, in my opinion, in my reading leans toward. I don't know. Is anarchism too far fetched?

I don't know. I don't know about this. But what if 

this guy put a 

hundred Starships?

in the 

into place with a hundred folks and brings them to Mars to set up shop and build up a settlement 

along those rules. Is this, is this a viable option? 

[00:52:51] Robert Zubrin: Well, history will tell. Look, the Americas were opened up to Europeans by Inquisition who funded Columbus. Alright, okay, the Spanish then had their colonies, the French had their colonies, the British had their colonies, okay, um, uh, the British colonies, and then the United outran these places, uh, because they became more attractive places to settle. why I'm speaking to you in now instead of French is because, is that despite the fact that France had four times the population 16 and um, the British colonies grew much faster because they were built as communities.

Churches and schools and all of this, and so British women were willing to emigrate to these colonies, whereas the French colonies were set up as, uh, for profit, uh, trading posts, and, uh, and they were also under direct domination of the, uh, Catholic Church. They didn't allow Jesuits there. Uh, excuse me, allow Huguenots there.

But, please, no, they absolutely did allow Jesuits. But the, but not Huguenots, okay, who would have been happy to go, but were not allowed. And general were not interested in going to these sorts of places. Uh, the aspirations of women in this time period was primarily to raise families. In communities.

and so, as a result of this, um, by 1750, when the decisive struggle occurred between Britain and France for control of North America, there were 2 million English speaking and 50, 000 French. And that, of course, determined the outcome. And then, after America achieved independence, okay, this was the place where it started.

Uh, immigrants wanted to go from Europe. Okay, and, and, within the United States, okay, there were two very different social in the north and in the south. In the north, we had a system based on free labor using, uh, ingenuity to develop technology to multiply the, Power of Labor. In other words, the United States was severe labor shortage.

In the North, it was developed through, uh, ingenuity and technology addressed this. In the South, it was addressed through slavery. Um, and as a result, the North outgrew the South. If you ask any Civil War buff, Why the North won the Civil War, they would say, well, because they population and more industry.

And that's true, but why did they have a larger population and more industry? It's because they were free. Okay? Forty percent of the Northern Army was, uh, either immigrants or first generation percent of the Confederate Army was. So, it was, so the immigrants will go where they can be free.

And So, that is why I believe, by the way, that the generic science fiction trope of the extraterrestrial tyranny is unrealistic. Um, because any extraterrestrial tyranny would die on the vine, because who would want to emigrate to one?

[00:56:18] Markus: Exactly. 

[00:56:21] Robert Zubrin: And therefore, your question about Musk, okay, um, obviously has a extremely strong personality, uh, arguably sort of a Bonapartist type personality. Um, could he set up a colony on Mars? Yeah, he might, uh, but it would only outgrow the rest if it was a free colony that offered more humans to develop, uh, uh, manifest their inherent potential than the not, you know,

it,

would be outgrown, um, and the ditto, you know, for if the China sets up its colony or whoever, the, the, the, freedom is going to win this one because it has more to sell.

[00:57:10] Markus: So it's a more, uh, Darwinian approach 

[00:57:16] Robert Zubrin: Yes, precisely.

[00:57:17] Markus: To, to leave it over to evolution and 

survival of the most appropriate model.

[00:57:23] Robert Zubrin: Correct. 

[00:57:26] Markus: So who would we send? Um, would you leave it to the ones with the largest wallets or should we select for certain character traits? We had in a, in a, in a recent episode on this, on this show, we had, um, Loretta Hidalgo Whitesides from Virgin Galactic. And she, we were. 

Discussing how to find the proper human to send to Mars to represent us and how difficult it is because who says what is wrong and what is right.

So would you send?

Who would we send? 

[00:58:08] Robert Zubrin: well, I think if we're talking Mars settlement the way that I've discussed it, uh, who goes would be decided by the various groups that are launching their various settlements. Um, now. and then once the settlements are established, who is admitted, uh, would be based on what the Martian want for immigrants you might say, okay?

Um, now, this is also an interesting question, this very similar question to, um, What people talk about in the immigration debate, um, um, here in the United States now, um, and, um, do believe that, uh, uh, early Martian city states, and, and I do believe city states are probably social organization that these places will be, um,

uh,

will degree of solidarity, um, in order to get by.

Uh, that is, while I do believe that they will need to be free, there will need to be a fair amount, a large amount of social cohesion. And there's just somewhat tension with, uh, Um, liberty in its pure, unrestricted Um, now that that can be achieved, okay? One is you have people all come from the same sect or whatever, you can get, uh, uh, pretty good social that way.

But such societies will tend to be small because they can only draw from a narrow demographic. Um, and therefore I believe that the, the melting model, the one that Welcomes all or nearly all, uh, but, uh, can effectively assimilate them to a identity on, Mars.

[01:00:04] Markus: Very interesting because if I understand you correct, this is what we're experiencing Currently on earth, um, in, especially in our Western societies that our societies 

are renewing or adapting to migration patterns, 

migration needs for various 

reasons. And so what is, happening here is, 

a reorganization of societies.

And the same may hold true for Mars or other extraterrestrial places. 

So 

just, I'm just pointing that out to get a feeling as to how fast or how 

slow something like this is happening. Because we are essentially also experiencing this sort of Darwinian 

reorganization of our own societies.

[01:01:05] Robert Zubrin: yeah. Yeah, it does. Um, and, um, the thing, okay. As I say, the Martian societies, I, I don't believe the multicultural model works on Mars. Uh, you can't have a city state that is divided into different groups who identify group and not with the city as a whole. the, the, the, it's a formula for disaster, uh, but it does have to be welcoming.

It has to be a format that does people to it. Uh, mean, I think, you know, historically, One of the great strengths, if not the greatest strength, of the United States has been its ability to do that. Um, I think it's demonstrated a better ability to do that than, for instance, European countries.

That is, know, You can become American, but you cannot become a Pole. You cannot be, it's very difficult to become a very difficult to become French. But you can become an American very easily. And it means something. Um, and, uh, frankly, um, One of the great, um, problems I have with the Trump rejection of that tradition.

Um, um, and, and, and why I do not believe that it is, uh, a, a. It's not a conservative movement at all, it's a nativist movement, it's not the same thing. Um, because it rejects most important traditions. Um, but the, the, um, but anyway, but this is definitely going to be the challenge. But the challenge of, of the Martian city states, whether they know it or not, Okay, whether they know it or not, whether they acknowledge it or not, is they will competition for immigrants.

They will be in competition for immigrants with each other, and they will be in competition for immigrants societies of the earth. Okay, and the one that makes itself will draw the most immigrants, um, and, um, And it will grow and example to humanity everywhere.

And this is fundamental to, to how we progress. Um, the, the, the, um, you know, Um, uh, the ideas that created America were not created in America. The 18th century liberalism was widely understood by intellectual circles in Europe, certainly. Um, but they couldn't implement it there, there were too many institutions in the way. Uh, we were able to give it a try, in perfect form, but nevertheless, a try. Founders called it a noble experiment. It worked. It worked so well that not only did millions of immigrants come to and the place became a superpower, but it became an example now democracy is the standard.

Uh,

And even countries that are not democratic pretend that they are, because you have to at least pretend that you are to be a respectable country.

[01:04:21] Markus: Like currently we're doing everything to get rid of democracy again, but I hear you. 

[01:04:28] Robert Zubrin: By democracy, I don't mean mob rule. I mean liberty under law, constitutional governance. Democracy, word has,

uh,

it has two 

[01:04:42] Markus: um, do you see Mars as the beginning of a planet B, or is it still so that extraterrestrial habitation is in itself? 

too complex, too complicated, and too inhospitable, um, compared to our own paradise we live in.

[01:05:06] Robert Zubrin: Okay. Um. I I reject this idea of Mars as this place that, uh, we should settle it so that there's some survivors after the earth is destroyed. Uh, I, I, I've, the argument is, is first of all technically also morally repellent. Um, the, the, we don't go to order to, um. Desert the Earth. We go to Mars or to desert the human race.

Um, we go to Mars in order to expand the capacity of the human race, to create new branches of human civilization, which side by side with terrestrial civilization will continue continue to invent, continue to open new Okay, the, the, I mean, yes, some individuals fled Europe for America in order place where they could be, but, but, conceived of as a historic project, the idea was not to have a place where Western civilization could survive after Europe was destroyed.

Conceived from the point of view of, of the overall project of Western civilization, it was a, a, a project that immensely enhanced and expanded, uh, the capacity of, uh, uh, Western Civilization and Human Civilization, um, to, to with all sorts of things. Um, and so, yeah, um, it, it, it's, it's not we're deserting Earth to go to Mars, it's that,

we're, we're

We're going to Mars to expand the capacity of the human race, and not just to deal with, you know, threats like asteroids, which of course a space faring humanity can deal with and a non space faring humanity cannot, but to deal with all sorts of things.

I mean, you think Say, COVID, okay. Some of the vaccines came from Europe, some came from America. The fact that there was more players in the game enhanced capacity to deal with that crisis. And, you know, what been a much more deadly Then certainly the, the fact that we had more players in more countries on this, able on this, okay, increase our survival chance.

[01:07:32] Markus: Barbara Belvisi of Interstellar Labs, I don't know if you know her,

[01:07:38] Robert Zubrin: I do.

[01:07:38] Markus: um, and on this show she argued that she sees our role as humans to help life to become interplanetary. So we humans, we're developing technology as a vessel to help life leave the planet and distribute itself in the universe. What do you make of that?

[01:08:08] Robert Zubrin: I agree with that. I believe that humans are not the enemies of life, humans are the vanguards of life.

[01:08:15] Markus: Fantastic. If the call came, um, Dr. Zubrin, um, today, um, that there is a starship leaving next week for Mars, would you go?

[01:08:32] Robert Zubrin: Although, I I must say I don't expect that call and it's not in expectation of that call that I have to say no. Put in all this work make humans to Mars happen. is, um, you know, for me, the space venture is not, oh gee, if only I could go to space and look at the earth out the love to do that. That'd be great fun. But that to me, that's not my driving motivation. My driving motivation is, you know, I only going to live once. I want to do something significant with my life. And I think this is the most significant thing that's being done in our time. 

[01:09:11] Markus: I'd like to ask you a question that I keep asking every guest on this show, um, because we're building up a playlist on Spotify for the aspiring space traveler. And so my question to you, um, if you decide to go to 

Mars. You will understand that this, 

after the first weeks of excitement 

have worn off, is essentially also a boring journey 

to this place because it takes a while.

So my question to you is, what one piece of music would you not want to miss on that journey? And you can pick one tune, which I will then upload or add to the Spotify 

[01:09:57] Robert Zubrin: Beethoven's third Symphony,

[01:10:00] Markus: That was a quick one. Fantastic. And my, and my last question, uh, this place is called the Space Cafe Podcast. And it's a coffee place, so to say, and now, and then you go to coffee places to energize yourself with an espresso. Now I challenge you to energize us, to energize the audience with an espresso for the mind, a shot of inspiration, and you can pick whatever What is your kind of topic you want to pick?

[01:10:31] Robert Zubrin: so I'm not exactly sort of thing you're looking for, but I've asked them to think about if they could create a society with a clean sheet of paper, okay, you could take all the best from all the worst behind, would it be? Think about that, because we're going to have a chance to do that.

We have in our power to begin the world anew.

[01:11:00] Markus: Fantastic. This is exactly what I was looking for. Dr. Robert Zubrin, thank you so much for your time and your wisdom.

[01:11:10] Robert Zubrin: Well, thank you inviting me. I greatly enjoyed this conversation.

[01:11:15]Markus“: And that's a wrap my friends for today's episode. What a journey it's been again with Dr. Robert to Brin. From nuclear reactors to food production from government governance to new. Society's we've gone far beyond rockets and landings in this episode. And because the vision isn't about planting flags, it's about expanding human civilization itself. 

We're not leaving earth behind. We're expanding our human portfolio. And this is really where the fun starts, where things get interesting. Once you learn more about all this. I highly recommend checking out the Mars society find. Everything online. Of course, find us on LinkedIn and Reddit. And find the links in the show notes. And if you enjoy the show, my friends leave us a rating, help us reach more space enthusiasts, just like you. And until our next conversation in two weeks from now, stay curious. Keep looking up my friends and keep in mind that sometimes. The biggest challenges. Aren't about. Getting there. It's all about what we do once we arrive. Hmm. 

Bye for now.